THE PRICE OF SPRAWL INSTITUTE REPORT

Florida's rapid growth is creating a water-supply challenge that can no longer be ignored. The state has historically relied heavily on groundwater to support its growing population, but that resource is reaching its sustainable limits. According to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), groundwater withdrawals are expected to level off as available supplies become increasingly constrained. Future growth will therefore depend more heavily on alternative, and more expensive, sources of water.

Florida Is Growing—and So Is Its Demand for Water

FDEP projects that Florida's population will increase by 23%, or approximately 4.8 million people, between 2020 and 2040, reaching 26.4 million residents. During the same period, statewide water demand is projected to increase by 13%, or 866 million gallons per day, reaching 7,302 million gallons per day.

The biggest increase will come from public water supply. Public-supply demand is projected to increase 22% by 2040, reaching 3,166 million gallons per day and accounting for approximately 43% of Florida's total water demand.

By comparison, agricultural water demand is projected to increase only 1%, or 33 million gallons per day.

The data make an important point: Florida's future increase in water demand will be driven primarily by population growth and development—not agriculture.

We Cannot Simply Pump More Groundwater

Florida's water management districts have determined that groundwater resources are already insufficient to meet future demands in large areas of the state. Attempting to meet those demands through additional groundwater withdrawals could result in saltwater intrusion, reduced spring flows, declining lake levels and the loss of wetlands.

The state therefore must increasingly turn to alternative water supplies, including desalination, brackish groundwater, reclaimed water, stormwater, surface water and aquifer storage and recovery.

These technologies can provide additional water and make Florida's water system more resilient. But they are not cheap.

FDEP specifically acknowledges that alternative water supplies are frequently more expensive to develop and operate than traditional water sources.

The $2.396 Billion Question

The Florida Office of Economic & Demographic Research (EDR) has put a price on part of Florida's future water challenge.

EDR estimates that meeting the remaining inferred statewide water-supply shortage by 2045 could require between $1.417 billion and $3.375 billion, with an average projected expenditure of approximately $2.396 billion.

That is a significant cost, and it raises an important question:

Who is going to pay for the water required to support Florida's continued growth?

The cost can ultimately fall on developers, utility customers, local governments, taxpayers, or some combination of all four. Regardless of who writes the check, there is no such thing as free water infrastructure.

Growth Must Account for Its Water Costs

Florida's growth debate has traditionally focused on roads, schools, wastewater, stormwater and other infrastructure. Water must be treated with the same importance.

Before approving major new development, Florida should ask:

Where will the water come from? Is it sustainable? What will it cost? Who will pay for the infrastructure? And will existing residents be forced to subsidize the water needs of new development?

The Price of Sprawl Institute believes the answer should be straightforward:

Growth should pay for growth.

If a development requires an expensive alternative water supply to support it, those costs should be incorporated into the economics of the development, not shifted to existing taxpayers and utility customers.

Florida Has a Choice

Florida can continue approving growth and attempt to solve the water problem afterward, or it can recognize that water availability and water infrastructure must be fundamental components of responsible growth management.

The state's own data demonstrates that Florida is approaching the limits of its traditional water supply while adding millions of new residents.

The Price of Sprawl is not just traffic, crowded schools, overloaded roads and disappearing farmland.

The Price of Sprawl is also the rising cost of finding the next gallon of water.

Florida must begin planning for that cost today.

Sources

Florida Department of Environmental Protection — Alternative Water Supply

FDEP, Where Do We Get Our Water? / What Do We Know About Future Demand? / What Are Alternative Water Supplies? The report provides the population, water-demand, groundwater sustainability and alternative-water-supply projections used in this analysis.

Florida Department of Environmental Protection — Alternative Water Supply

Florida Office of Economic & Demographic Research — 2025 Annual Assessment of Florida's Water Resources

EDR, Annual Assessment of Florida's Water Resources: Supply and Demand, Chapter 3. The report provides the projected 2045 water-supply shortage expenditures, including the $1.417 billion–$3.375 billion range and $2.396 billion average.

Florida EDR — Annual Assessment of Florida's Water Resources